MannybeinManny is Doing Lines: The Percolator

NFL lines that is…

Every week I read and hear about the different methods both professionals and idiots alike, use to quantify their choices when betting on NFL games.  Of some of the most ridiculous and unfathomable processes, only one ascends the acclivity of the highest Moron Mountain top.  That process is none other than the accurate and extremely persuasive “one million simulated games of Madden 12” .

Being that this is Jock Toast and we enjoy perusing around the finer concourse of dumb ideas, I thought that I would actually push the envelope on this idea.  Who needs a million simulated games?  Hundreds of MIT nerds create this game year in and year out, it has to be accurate, right?

Probably not.  But if you are boneheaded enough to use the data gathered from a video game made for the average American teenager, and 35-year old virgin’s Friday/Saturday entertainment to actually decide how you bet on a PROFESSIONAL, REAL LIFE football game, why not just put all your faith in one simple simulation?

So, with that said, for the remainder of the NFL regular season and postseason, I will be doing just that.  One simulation.  One poorly formulated consultation on where you should place your hard-earned cheddar.  Let’s see how realistic Madden really is.

Note: All lines used in this post came on Tuesday night (11/8) from Sportsbook.com.  These lines will more than likely fluctuate before the Thursday, Sunday and Monday night games as injury reports and other news circulate closer to game day.  Also, each game is played under “Exhibition Settings” with a 15 minute clock and clear weather.  It is also on a PS3, if that matters…

Lines after the break:

Thursday:

Oakland +7 at San Diego -7: And we have ourselves the first overtime thriller.  Tied at 17-points a piece, Phillip Rivers FINALLY led his team down the field for a touchdown; ridding himself of his season-long, crunch-time turnover syndrome.  Even though “The Percolator” (that is what I will refer this process as) has the Chargers winning in OT, the Raiders covered the seven point spread.  Ride the Al Davis Super Zombies.

Sunday:

Arizona +14 at Philadelphia -14: It won’t look good early for the Eagles, who are looking to bounce back with a quick week after a tough loss to the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football.  Down four points with less than two minutes left in the fourth quarter, Mike Vick (WHO WILL GO 20-41, 273-yards, 2-TDS, 4-INTS) will orchestrate a miraculous drive down field, capping the drive off with a one yard pass to Shady McCoy. 31-28, Eagles.  Kolb did play in this matchup and was just as bad as Vick, capping his day off with a 15 for 35, 200-yard, 1-3 TD/TO ratio.  Again, smart money on the dog in this bloody matchup, Arizona covers on the road.

Tennessee +3 at Carolina -3: Another close game from “The Percolator”.  The final, 38-32, Carolina.  This game will feature a big day on the ground for DeAngelo Williams, with “The Percolator” predicting three touchdowns for the back.  Look for Cam to manage this game well and throw a touchdown pass (he will also force a few tight throws that wind up interceptions, but that’s not really an astound prediction on Madden’s behalf).  The Rookie of the year does it again.  Carolina covers.

Houston -3 at Tampa Bay +3: The losing continues for Bill Simmons’ darling, Josh Freeman who will throw 4 interceptions in this one.  We have Houston winning this game 28-10; thanks in part to Arian Foster, who rounds up the game with yet another 125-yard, two touchdown game.  Houston wins big, and covers.

Washington +4 at Miami -4: Someone has to win this game right?  Look for the Dolphins to… NOT do what they did last week, adding another embarrassing “L” to the loss column.  Washington wins 28-7, behind a strong performance from John Beck (and I mean strong, as in slightly stronger than Rex Grossman, but significantly weaker than Curtis Painter).  Washington covers.

Jacksonville -3 at Indianapolis +3: Speaking of Curtis Painter…are people actually going to want to watch this game (we already know Jacksonville, the answer is no)?  Indianapolis will get their first victory in an overtime thriller that ruins there chances on getting Luck, 27-21.  Blaine Gabbert goes 4-21 in this game for only 79 measly yards.  Smart money is on the win-less, Curtis Painter led, Colts.

Denver +3 at Kansas City -3: Not much Tebowing going on in this game.  29.8 QB passer rating.  9-for-25 passing.  144-yards through the air.  One touchdown.  Five interceptions. One benched, mighty, and Tebow.  Kansas City wins this game, 24-21.

Buffalo +5.5 at Dallas -5.5: Tony Romo bounces back in a big way leading the Boys to a 45-17 win over the Bills (who all of a sudden look like they have lost the magic they had at the beginning of the season).  Cowboys cover and prevent Jason Garrett from getting fired and causing Jerry Jones to perform a mid-season tirade.

New Orleans at Atlanta (Pick Em):  Pick the Saints.  Simply, pick the Saints.  41-12, WHOOOOO DAT!!!

St. Louis +2.5 at Cleveland -2.5: This will be a back and forth battle that ultimately leaves Colt McCoy and his wide assortment of weapons (my tongue is dripping with sarcasm on that one) with the opportunity for some last-minute heroics.  If this were the Texas Longhorns, Colt wins the game easily.  But this is Cleveland.  Rams win, 28-23 and cover.

Pittsburgh -3 at Cincinnati +3: The Ginger Haired Kid get’s absolutely shat on by the Steel Curtain (and we’re not talking about your typical solid mass deuce.  We are talking Hershey squirts, feels like glass shards, deuce).  The Pittsburgh D reins havoc all over the field in their typical manner, while Big Ben throws five touchdown passes.  That last second Ravens loss really pissed these guys off.  66-7, Steelers barely cover.

Baltimore -7 at Seattle +7: Do you really have to ask who wins this game? Yes?  Well it is not the team coached by that cheating, arrogant, one-time college coaching, douche bag, Pete Carrol.  Ravens win handily behind Ray Lewis and his Island of Misfit Toys.  Though it is not predicted to be as sizable as the Steelers win, the Ravens win, 38-14.

NY Giants +3.5 at San Francisco -3.5:  This is the first of three intriguing games that are happening this weekend.  Though the 49ers are favored at home, Eli Manning comes into Alex Smith’s house, eats all of his food, drinks all of his beer, clogs all of his toilets, and lets his dog out without putting him on the chain in his 52-31 win.  Look for a semi-healthy Bradshaw to take pressure off of Eli and open up the play action.  Giants cover.

Detroit +3 at Chicago -3: In the most important matchup of the weekend (yes, I’m a Bears fan), the Bears give up… 37-points in the second half?  What the hell does “The Percolator” know anyways?  But for those of you that care, Lions win and cover, 51-37.  Really, 37 points in the second half (Is this real life?)?

New England +1 at NY Jets -1:  Pats come back to life, shelling Rex Ryan’s defense.  That’s what happens when you have an angry man named Tom Brady.  31-17, Patriots in what is an interesting first half game.  Nothing more.

Monday:

Minnesota +13.5 at Green Bay -13.5:  Green Bay. Green Bay.  Green Bay.  Green Bay. NO, I’m not going to type “ThePercolator’s” score prediction.  It’s that unfair.

So there you have it folks!  Tune back in next Wednesday for more Percolator picks and my results from week 10.

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